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"Terry Belton"
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Corpus: 1990-03-17 – 2025-12-01
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EFTA01149630
Dataset 9
2011-08-08
2p
983w
Subject:
UPDATE: Conf Call on Equity Implications of USA Downgrade : Also joining: Bruce
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
… •
Terry Belton
, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income and FX Strategy; and • Bruce Kasman, Managing Director and Chief Economist. • Details and specifics: • Monday, August 8, at 11:00am ET • DIAL-IN: (US); (outside US); Passcode: Strategy. • Replay through 8/15: (US); (outside US); Passcode: 8052. Replay available approximately one hour after the call ends. • Please join us for a conference call on Monday, August 8, at 11:00am ET hosted by Thomas Lee and
Terry Belton
(Managing Director and…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01149630.pdf
EFTA01149274
Dataset 9
8p
5,905w
…Morgan View J.P,Morgan • The US economy is teetering on the edge of recession. This will likely push 2012 JPMorgan global GDP growth forecast vs. the Fed into an Operation Twist to raise the duration of its SOMA portfolio Global equities later this month. We are not optimistic on its impact, gauging it at only 1Obp 3.8 IASC1 AC World 360 (see
Terry Belton
et al, Demystifying Operation Twist, Sep 9). President Obama —PP proposed yesterday a larger…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01149274.pdf
EFTA01166805
Dataset 9
2011-07-28
2p
556w
Subject:
SLIDES: JPM Conference Call: "Implications of Potential Default and/or Downgrade of US
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
… image002.gif Please find attached the presentation for the call. J.E'Morgan Conference Call Implications of Potential Default and/or Downgrade of US Debt Hosted by Vivek Juneja Large-Cap Banks Equity Analyst Featuring
Terry Belton
Head of Global Fixed Income Strategy Thursda Jul 28 11:00am ET Please dial in 10 minutes early to avoid excess holding. Replay available approximately one hour after the call ends. PODCAST available within 24 hrs: Go to the link below to find…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01166805.pdf
EFTA00933056
Dataset 9
2012-04-08
4p
2,565w
Subject:
The J.P. Morgan View: How bad a correction?
From:
US GIO <
[email protected]
>
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…the week, moving it back to their YTD average. By our analysis, about one third of the rally was due to negative surprise in US Payrolls, and two thirds due to short covering (
Terry Belton
, Payroll surprises and Treasury yields, today). Given the holiday weekend, it is likely that many investors have not been able to cover this short duration position and will do so instead next week. • The very near term is thus likely positive for bonds. But given…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00933056.pdf
EFTA01182056
Dataset 9
2012-11-02
4p
264w
…market implications, including both market behavior and sector strategies. Hosted by: Thomas Lee, CFA Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Managing Director Featured Speakers: Tom Block, founder Toni Block Consults and former Head of Government Relations for IP. Morgan Chase (bio attached);
Terry Belton
. Head of Global Fixed Income and FX Strategy and Managing Director. EFTA01182057 Details and specifics: Friday, November 2 at 11:00am ET DIAL•IN: (US); (outside US); Passcode: Replay through 11/9: (US); I (outside US);…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01182056.pdf
EFTA01182054
Dataset 9
2012-11-01
2p
745w
Subject:
Global CC: Pre-election Strategies for Equity and Credit, Friday 11/2, Ilam ET
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…and sector strategies. Hosted by: • Thomas Lee, CFA Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Managing Director Featured Speakers: • Tom Block, founder Tom Block Consults and former Head of Government Relations for J.P. Morgan Chase (bio attached); •
Terry Belton
, Head of Global Fixed Income and FX and Managing Director. Details and specifics: • Friday, November 2 at 11:00am ET • DIAL-IN: (US); + outside US); Passcode: • Replay through 11/9: (US): (outside US); Passcode: M. Replay available approximately one hour after…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01182054.pdf
EFTA02702625
Dataset 11
2012-11-09
8p
5,904w
…and EM local bonds vs Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys, Bruce DM. Kasman. et al. US Fixed Income Markets,
Terry Belton
and Srini Equities Ramaswamy • Equity markets fell sharply post US elections, but we are not changing our Global Fixed Income Markets, Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio strategy. Bassi Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy. Joyce Chang • From a month ago, we avoided directional longs in our GMOS model equity Key trades and risk: Emerging Market Equity Strategy. portfolio due…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2011/EFTA02702625.pdf
EFTA00598000
Dataset 9
8p
5,869w
… Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan !says. Bruce Kasman. el al. • The circus in Washington and Brussels has taken some attention away from US Fixed Income Markets.
Terry Belton
and Stini economic data. Until today's US GDP report, activity data were largely in line Ramaswamy with expectations (lowered over past months). But the overall lowering of the Global Fixed Income A4arkets, Pavan Wadlma and Fabio US GDP profile over recent years — a 5.1% contraction during the recession, Bassi…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00598000.pdf
EFTA01146217
Dataset 9
2012-10-26
8p
6,030w
…boys. Bruce 4% gain relative to DM govies (currency hedged) so far this year is in keeping Kasman. et al. with a steady pattern of outperformance since 2009. One supporting factor has US Fixed Income Markets.
Terry Belton
and Sdni been a step up in inflows to EM local currency bond funds in recent weeks, Ramaswamy triggered by QE3. The rate outlook is more idiosyncratic across countries in Global Fixed Income Markets. Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio EM than DM, and…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01146217.pdf
EFTA01172027
Dataset 9
8p
6,086w
…next week. With Kasman. el al. the ECB's policy rate likely to be cut Thursday to 1%, the crisis low, Presi- US Fixed Income Markets.
Terry Belton
and Srini dent's Draghi's guidance on whether it can go lower will be keenly watched. Ramaswamy Our call is for a rate of 50bp by mid-2012, supporting a bullish euro money Global Fixed Income Markets. Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio market view. Bassi Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy. Joyce Chang…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01172027.pdf
EFTA01170770
Dataset 9
8p
5,884w
…el al. add back the Spain underweight we closed last week. US Fixed Income Markets.
Terry Belton
and Stini Ramaswamy • Please help us to gauge prospects for inflation by completing our Inflation Global Fixed Income Markets. Pavan Wadbwa and Fabio Expectations Survey on: Bassi Equities Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy. Joyce Chang Key trades and risk: Emermng Market Equity Strategy. • US equities continued to rally for a fourth straight week fuelled by this Adrian Momal et al. week's EU…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01170770.pdf
EFTA01146788
Dataset 9
2012-08-31
8p
6,176w
…Bruce Kasman. et al. • Bonds edged up on the week. As so often over the past few years, all eyes are US Fixed Income Markets.
Terry Belton
and Srini on central banks. Fed Chairman Bemanke delivered no major surprises today. Ramaswamy But then Jackson Hole speeches last year and the year before did not provide Global Fixed Income Markets, Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio clear signals or material rallies on the day (see chart), even as they were Bassi followed within…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01146788.pdf
EFTA01146380
Dataset 9
2012-10-12
8p
6,029w
…But for the near term, we are wary of a Spanish Kasman. et al. downgrade from Moody's, to below investment-grade, and thus move to a US Fixed Income Markets.
Terry Belton
and Srini more defensive stance, including by cutting overweights in the EMU core vs Ramaswamy Germany, and adding outright longs in German Bunds. Global Fixed Income Markets. Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio Bassi Equities Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy. Joyce Chang • Global equities have paused over the past…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01146380.pdf
EFTA01175987
Dataset 9
8p
5,905w
… Global Markers Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce Kasman, et al. • Why do Japanese investors keep buying their own public sector debt, which US Fixed Income Mathes,
Terry Belton
and Srini is racing to 250% of GDP by 2015, twice the level that got Greece in trou- Ramaswamy ble? Part of the explanation is what we call financial repression, where the Global Fixed Income Markets, Pavan Wadhwa and Fablo government puts pressure on domestic institutional investors, frequently Bassi through regulations…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01175987.pdf
EFTA01181711
Dataset 9
2012-10-05
8p
5,861w
…investor perceptions of risk, and carry. Combining a range of Kasman. et al. diverse signals in this way yields a substantial diversification benefit, and this US Fixed Income Markers.
Terry Belton
and Srini approach would have garnered a return to risk of 1.1 in G-4 10-year bond Ramaswamy futures since 1990. For this month, the strategy suggests a small duration Global Fixed Income Markets. Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio short. Bassi Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy. Joyce Chang …
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01181711.pdf
EFTA01181150
Dataset 9
2012-09-07
8p
5,854w
…Strategy, Jan Loeys, Bruce bond buying will begin, not least because the ECB's request for the IMF to be Kasman, et al. involved in setting the related conditionality will likely make Spain all the US Fixed Income Markets,
Terry Belton
and Srini more reluctant to sign up. Ramaswamy Global Fixed Income Markets, Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio • Peripheral bonds have already enjoyed a dizzying rally since July. From here, Bassi we favor 2- to-5-year curve flatteners in Spain…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01181150.pdf
EFTA01176400
Dataset 9
8p
5,881w
…exactly what is needed to make EMU work. Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce Kasman. et al. Fixed income US Fixed Income Markets.
Terry Belton
and Srini • Bonds edged a little higher, with German and Australian benchmarks record- Ramaswamy ing new all-time yield lows, in a week of data disappointments. Intra-EMU Global Fixed Income Markets. Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio spreads held in despite a wobble both at the start of the week, on the fall of …
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01176400.pdf
EFTA01171349
Dataset 9
8p
5,883w
…Jan Loeys. Bruce • Greek politics repriced the yield curve lower, but the aborted referendum was Kasman, el al. just the most striking of a gamut of European surprises, including an unex- US Fixed Income Markets.
Terry Belton
and Srini pected ECB rate cut. The renewed Greek drama, an inconclusive G-20, and a Ramaswamy poor Spanish auction all conspired to send intra-EMU spreads soaring once Global Fixed Income Markets, Pavan Wadbwa and Fabio more, and Italian yields to perilous…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01171349.pdf
EFTA01176770
Dataset 9
8p
5,876w
…Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce pared for the scale of the consequent hedging flows from investors, Kasman. et al. corporates and depositors seeking protection against potential currency risk US Fixed Income Markets.
Terry Belton
and Srini between EMU members, in our view. Ramaswamy Global Fixed Income Markets. Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio • What to do in the face of a risk which is so difficult to forecast? Many Bassi investors have pared back positions, as shown by our…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01176770.pdf
EFTA01149242
Dataset 9
8p
5,954w
…US MBS (see Matt Jozoff, MBS Market Commentary, Sep 21). Kasman. el al. US Fixed Income Markets.
Terry Belton
and Srini • Euro area funding conditions continue to worsen, and surely demand a Ramaswamy decisive policy response. Weak growth and slippage in fiscal targets mean we Global Fixed Income Markets. Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio now think a more severe Greek debt restructuring than that agreed in July is Bassi inevitable. That means a deeper recession in Greece. and (via asset price…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01149242.pdf
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