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18 results for “
"Operation Twist"
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EFTA00877419
Dataset 9
2012-04-13
4p
2,537w
Subject:
The J.P. Morgan View: More local, less global
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…next few months, as
Operation Twist
ends. • Equities — We continue to OW US equities. • Credit — We have moved to neutral on US high-grade. • Foreign exchange — Commodity currencies to gain 1-3% by end of O2 as Chinese growth bottoms. • Commodities — Commodity prices should bottom over the coming quarter and begin to rebound as we head into O3. Risk assets continued to correct down while safer bonds rallied amidst average economic news from the US and China, but a sharp…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00877419.pdf
EFTA01089766
Dataset 9
6p
4,193w
…Still, we believe that economic A common response by investors to this turbulent envi- growth in the US is sustainable, if muted; the Federal ronment has been to hide in the safest possible assets. Reserve has shown it is willing to support growth through Denmark issued two-year government bonds with nega- its extension of
Operation Twist
, and the cyclical recovery tive yields (—0.08%) this month, joining Switzerland as a remains broad-based, with small business confidence country where…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089766.pdf
EFTA00410886
Dataset 9
2012-06-20
6p
1,776w
Subject:
Early Tour 6.20.12
From:
Ike Groff
…Heading into today, it appears to be setting up as one of the more uncertain Fed meetings with both the street and the Fed board itself somewhat divided on what action to take (if any). Consensus seems to be that if they do anything (UBS thinks refrain from easing) they will extend
operation twist
(and possibly ZIRP), lower economic forecasts and note increased downside risks, reiterate that they will continue to monitor data and all options remain on the table…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00410886.pdf
EFTA01149102
Dataset 9
2011-10-12
25p
8,091w
…EM currencies. Not our central scenario, but a risk worth mentioning. US negative fiscal/monetary policy environment could return to haunt USD bulls ■ Q3 has been all about the eurozone, but the long-term bearish USD forces have not gone away: - The Fed '
Operation Twist
' and dovish assessment of the economy/policy message highlights a cyclically bearish case, still. QE3 talks could return should the US economy disappoint. ■ Structural environment remains bearish for the USD too. Worries over…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01149102.pdf
EFTA01089722
Dataset 9
2012-06-29
44p
20,625w
…but it remains in line with our forecast of moderate muddle through, growth of around 2% in 2012. The Fed extended "
Operation Twist
" until the end of the year and is ready to do more if the economic situation deteriorates materially. Meanwhile, we believe that Chinese activity data is showing signs of stabilization and inflation remains low. We expect US corporate the Chinese economy to gradually pick up in the second half of 2012. bonds offer the • Equities Despite our…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089722.pdf
EFTA01180844
Dataset 9
2012-09-10
4p
2,351w
Subject:
J.P. Morgan Macro Skinny: central banks on the move
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…Bemanke will use these data to galvanize support for another round of asset purchases, as early as this month. We've been of the view that the Fed will adopt a wait-and-see approach on the basis that an easing program is already in place (extension of
Operation Twist
), activity is bottoming out, and financial conditions have improved greatly (see charts below). EFTA01180844 But there's a good chance we'll be wrong here: Bernanke has no patience to…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01180844.pdf
EFTA01180848
Dataset 9
2012-09-10
4p
2,296w
…sector—a reflection of the European and Chinese slowdowns7. Bernanke will use these data to galvanize support for another round of asset purchases, as early as this month. We've been of the view that the Fed will adopt a wait- and-see approach on the basis that an easing program is already in place (extension of
Operation Twist
), activity is bottoming out, and financial conditions have improved greatly (see charts below). But there's a good chance we'll…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01180848.pdf
EFTA01089678
Dataset 9
2012-10-25
44p
21,521w
…2% 11J- slightly below or close to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. UBS forecasts real GDP growth of 2.0% in 3Q 2012 (consensus: 1.8%) and 1.6% in 4Q 2012 (consensus: 1.9%). The Fed has added considerable stimulus: it extended -6%
Operation Twist
and its interest rate forward guidance, indicated that it will stay highly accommodative even after the 8% recovery strengthens, launched an open-ended agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program of USD…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089678.pdf
EFTA01089574
Dataset 9
2013-02-21
45p
23,567w
…The Fed's very pro-growth monetary policy stance is a clear advantage for the local equity market. The end of and Telecoms, where revenue growth is low
Operation Twist
has been followed by additional large (net) bond buying, which we expect to last late into this year. and valuations are unattractive. • US equities are forecast to gradually advance with earnings growth. Improving manufacturing activity should allow for some modest re-rating in the price-to-earnings ratio from the…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089574.pdf
EFTA01144260
Dataset 9
2013-04-09
5p
3,378w
Subject:
Macro Skinny: The S&P as a policy tool, revisited
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…the BOJ is now focused on scooping long-dated securities from the market and will be significantly extending the average maturity of the JGBs it purchases (from under three years currently to about seven years). ...and the Sal followed with its own "
Operation Twist
" The Fed showed the BOJ the power of buying duration... 30-year government bond yield % (both axes) Govt bond purchases',% of net debt supply (10-yr equivalents) 4.5 Japan 2.0 80 Alter April meeting…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01144260.pdf
EFTA01181537
Dataset 9
2012-10-01
5p
2,776w
Subject:
Eye on the Market, October 1, 2012
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Soiree: Census&rem,ISM. Source: BureauofEconomic Anaysis. That US growth is weak is not a surprise; the Fed would not have rushed its QE-forever policy into place just three months after "
Operation Twist
" if US growth were in good shape. What's notable is that the Fed convinced US equity markets that it's going to work: the S&P is now up 17% for the year, with the NASDAQ up 21%…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01181537.pdf
EFTA01070765
Dataset 9
2011-09-21
6p
3,801w
…squarely on the Fed." In 1971, H.R. Haldeman spoke about the effectiveness of Nixon's strategy: "We have Arthur Burns by the bells on the money supply". Sometimes, US politics are the best Reality Show of all. No comment on
Operation Twist
, since a few basis points at the end of the curve doesn't mean much. Michael Cembalest, Chief Investment Officer I For every ghost town example (e.g. Ordos in Inner Mongolia). there are others (Pudong, Linyi…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01070765.pdf
EFTA01181328
Dataset 9
2012-09-14
5p
2,623w
Subject:
The J.P. Morgan View : On to real asset inflation
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…in ow view. As the chart to the right shows, the 10-year UST breakeven is near its all time high. And UST yields have just backed up to a 4 month high in yield and still benefit from ongoing QE and
Operation Twist
. We find it safer to hedge outright for rising inflation areas in markets where we believe the Fed will not object and will not interfere. In fixed income, such hedges should preferably be done through options…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01181328.pdf
EFTA01149274
Dataset 9
8p
5,905w
…Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View J.P,Morgan • The US economy is teetering on the edge of recession. This will likely push 2012 JPMorgan global GDP growth forecast vs. the Fed into an
Operation Twist
to raise the duration of its SOMA portfolio Global equities later this month. We are not optimistic on its impact, gauging it at only 1Obp 3.8 IASC1 AC World 360 (see Terry Belton et al, Demystifying
Operation Twist
, Sep 9). President Obama …
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01149274.pdf
EFTA01149242
Dataset 9
8p
5,954w
…a violent derisking in currencies. groat!, beams!. • Investors are spooked in part because of worries about whether unconven- tional monetary policy, like the Fed's
Operation Twist
, can affect the wider economy much. It has certainly not lost its ability to impact the markets directly targeted, as evidenced by the near 50bp rally in 30yr Treasuries this More details in ... week. The Fed's unexpected decision to reinvest MBS and Agency bullet Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and David Hensley…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01149242.pdf
EFTA01070761
Dataset 9
4p
3,091w
…committed to additional monetary stimulus. However, our colleagues at J.P. Morgan Securities LLC estimate the potential benefit of
Operation Twist
at only 10 basis points at the long end of the Treasury curve'. It's time perhaps to stop thinking about monetary policy. Bernanke himself acknowledges that most economic policies that "support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank". These are code words for fiscal policy, although you can be forgiven…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01070761.pdf
EFTA01071128
Dataset 9
4p
2,835w
…2011 2012 Source:CensusBureau, ISM. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. That US growth is weak is not a surprise; the Fed would not have rushed its QE-forever policy into place just three months after "
Operation Twist
" if US growth were in good shape. What's notable is that the Fed convinced US equity markets that it's going to work: the S&P is now up 17% for the year, with the NASDAQ up 21%. As we showed last…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01071128.pdf
EFTA01071140
Dataset 9
2011-10-12
5p
3,340w
…durable goods and capital spending levels having risen enough to fall again, unlike now]. Global manufacturing and services output surveys Index, sa What do these comparisons imply? While the Fed's recent
Operation Twist
was a modest move, Bernanke's familiarity so Manufacturing output with the 1930's playbook suggests he has not yet run through 56 his entire toolkit. It would probably take more confirmation of 52 a recession before it is revealed. And on fiscal policy, here is …
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01071140.pdf
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