…S&P 500 or cash. Let's assume the investor decides that in order to invest in the equity market, the following conditions have to hold: ** Avoid overvalued markets: trailing S&P 500 PIE multiples have to be 17x or less. The median multiple since 1950 has been I4.5x and the mean has been I5.5x, so 17x allows for some modest over-valuation, but not too much. ** Avoid recessions: unemployment has to be below 6%, and if not…