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"Global Manufacturing PMI"
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EFTA01089678
Dataset 9
2012-10-25
44p
21,521w
…1 1.9 in August. The increase was driven by improvements in both manufacturing and service sector activity. Thus, the GOMW9 3.1 0.9 1.1 25 1.7 1.5 Force 1.7 02 01 2.1 2.0 1.3
global manufacturing PMI
rose marginally to 48.9 from 48.1, while the services PMI jumped two index points to 54. nor 0.5 -2.1 42 29 33 2.7 • Geographically, improvements were concentrated in the…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089678.pdf
EFTA01171349
Dataset 9
8p
5,883w
…sheets (both private and public) in Germany allow the country to escape the painful adjustments that other Euro area countries have to make. • On Oct 14th, when we decided to turn positive on equity markets, we closed a previous underweight in Cyclical sectors on the hope that the downshifting in global manufacturing is coming to an end. Our
Global manufacturing PMI
rose in October (released on Nov 2), for the first time since February. Our Cyclical vs. Defensive trading rule…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01171349.pdf
EFTA01176677
Dataset 9
2012-05-04
8p
5,874w
…to the 2.2% forecast we held all through QI, but this is largely a rounding issue US High Yield caused by last week's US Q1 cut and this week downgrade of Taiwan. EMSCorp. EM FX Market attention has focused on weaker PMIs across the world and US jobs MSCI Europe' = data. Our April
Global Manufacturing PMI
edged back to the January level and is thus really unchanged this year. Our Global Services PMI, in contrast, fell 3 …
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01176677.pdf
EFTA01458540
Dataset 10
2015-10-02
1p
795w
… IFigute 1 I: Global Mfg PMI (Red = <50 and 'owes than but capex outlook has somewhat improved !last month and prior 3 months) Federal Raisin Manufacturing Surveys
Global Manufacturing PMI
man Prior Prior Sep-15 C 3mo av. Ch. Currant Outlook Index Sop-16 3mo avg Empire State Mfg Survey (NY) -14./ -4.3 Euro Area 521 -0 3 524 -0 4 Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey -6.0 9.7 Germany 523 -10 523 00 Texas Mfg Outlook…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01458540.pdf
EFTA00678712
Dataset 9
2013-08-10
5p
2,773w
Subject:
FW: The J.P. Morgan View : What countries to buy or sell
From:
"Barrett, Paul S" ipmilmlionnijpome
To:
"'Jeffrey Epstein"' <
[email protected]
>
…in local EM bonds. Equities • The prospective rebound in global manufacturing is inducing us to open an overweight in Cyclical vs. Defensive equity sectors globally. Both ow US and European equity strategists are currently favoring Cyclical sectors. • It is true that the
global manufacturing PMI
has not yet staged a convincing rebound. But our economists are confident of a manufacturing rebound in the coming months, driven initially by DM economies but also pulling EM economies along on the way up…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00678712.pdf
EFTA01089672
Dataset 9
6p
5,120w
…economic cycle is years and remains above the 2007 level of roughly 3.0x. picking up and leading indicators are improving — the JP Issuer quality remains sound too, with less than 20% of Morgan
Global Manufacturing PMI
has been flat or ris- newly issued bonds rated CCC or lower, relative to some ing for five consecutive months. 35% in 2007 (see Figure 5). Our current tactical investment positioning Overall, we still see value in holding a position in US high …
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089672.pdf
EFTA01181711
Dataset 9
2012-10-05
8p
5,861w
…the fourth straight month of equity gains, pushing the MSCI AC 65 World index up by15% from its June low. 60 • Macro data, PMIs and US payrolls were the main drivers of this week's gains. 55 The rebound in the
global manufacturing PMI
is inducing us to re-enter our Cyclical vs. Defensive equity sector overweight. At the same time, our 50 economists are seeing a constructive constellation of forward-looking 45 indicators, with an encouraging move up in…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01181711.pdf
EFTA01146946
Dataset 9
2012-08-03
8p
5,946w
…below-trend economic growth, super-easy monetary policy, EMSCorp. and a postponing of fiscal blowups in the US and Europe remains positive for S8P500 the mid-risk strategy, in our view. US high Yield US High Grade On the growth side, this week's
Global Manufacturing PMI
was even weaker than feared, and is near recession levels. To offset the dangerous signal of this MSCI AC Wald' production indicator, we need to get better news from services, demand, and EM…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01146946.pdf
EFTA01177347
Dataset 9
8p
5,984w
…corn vs. live cattle. Leo Evans (44.20) 7742.2537 • As if Euro turmoil and indecision were not enough to push down risk assets, leonard.a.evansgipmorgan.com now comes renewed doubt about world growth. Our
Global Manufacturing PMI
today fell back to a just above December, which was the lowest point since the recession. Our economists have cut their 2012 and 2013 global YTD returns through May 31 growth projections to 2.1% and 2.4% this week, due…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01177347.pdf
EFTA02702625
Dataset 11
2012-11-09
8p
5,904w
…Hedged into USD. Home builders across sectors. Euro Fixed Income is Bon Overall Index. US HG. HY. EMBIG and EMS Corp are JPM indices. EM FX is ELMI♦ • The rebound in the October
global manufacturing PMI
is what keeps us long in 5. Cyclical vs. Defensive equity sectors. Is this a high-beta trade? Not 2 EFTA_M _020751 14 EFTA02702626 Global Asset Allocation Jan Loeys (1-212)834-S874 The J.P. Morgan View J.P.Morgan Mnbeyvapritorgen.com…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2011/EFTA02702625.pdf
EFTA01172027
Dataset 9
8p
6,086w
…though, for the 2011 global GDP growth forecasts: JPMorgan and rest of the world. Upside surprises on ISM were more than offset by downside Consensus one in Europe and Asian, with our
Global Manufacturing PMI
falling (049.6, 4.0 a new low for the recovery (if we can call it that). Both the US and Asian PMIs tend to lead the rest of the world, raising the question on which will be right. 3.6 We are not sure…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01172027.pdf
EFTA01146380
Dataset 9
2012-10-12
8p
6,029w
…Q2 reporting season failed to lift equity markets during the first half of July. • There is not enough impetus in the macro picture either. This week's macro news was rather mixed, raising doubts about the anticipated rebound in global manufacturing. The rebound in the September
global manufacturing PMI
induced us last week to re-enter our Cyclical vs. Defensive equity sector overweight, but the trade has yet to perform. • However, the US reporting season provides two interesting sectoral themes …
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01146380.pdf
EFTA01145285
Dataset 9
5p
3,074w
Macro Skinny February 23. 2013 Stabilizing at healthy levels Global growth stabilizing at a healthy level. After five straight months of impressive monthly gains, the global manufacturing surveys are taking a breather the February manufacturing PMI was flat in Europe and a touch lower in the US. We had expected a downtick in the U.S. surveys (January 29'h Macro Skinny) as higher taxes and the impending budget sequestration temper business sentiment. So this weakness is nothing to get…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01145285.pdf
EFTA00955992
Dataset 9
2013-03-08
5p
2,784w
Subject:
The J.P. Morgan View : Equity market rally relies on value not growth
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…this call. • Unfortunately, neither our EM equity overweight nor our Cyclical overweight managed to add beta to our equity portfolio. Not only YTD, but also since the equity rally started last June, EM equities have underperformed their DM counterparts and Cyclical sectors have underperformed defensive sectors globally. • In fact given a decline in the
global manufacturing PMI
in February, we cut ow Cyclical sectoral exposures. We instead open an OW in small vs. large caps in the US, i.e…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00955992.pdf
EFTA01071578
Dataset 9
2012-11-14
5p
3,856w
…While Europe is addressing its balance of payments problems through money-printing, a European growth revival looks like a very remote event. Unusual period of earnings outperformance ending Fading growth benefits from stimulus Ratio of 2-year earningsgrowth to 2-year nominal GDP growth
Global manufacturing PMI
survey, Index 15x 58 16.6x 56 10x 54 5x Average peak:4.2x Average peak:2.1x 52 — — Ox 50 •5x • 48 •10x 46-i 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 Jun-09…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01071578.pdf
EFTA01187311
Dataset 9
2012-11-14
6p
3,749w
Subject:
J.P. Morgan Eye on the Market: A Star is Born
From:
US GIO <Ma
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…money-printing, a European growth revival looks like a very remote event. Unusual period of earnings outperformance ending Fading growth benefits from stimulus Ratio of 2-year earnings growth to 2-year nominal GDP growth
Global manufacturing PMI
survey,Index 15x 58 16,6x 56 - 10x 59 - Average peak: 4.2x Average peak: 2.1x 52 - 50 - 48 -10x 46 1992 Jun-09 Jun-t0 Jun-11 Jun-12 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 2000 2008 Sou ce: SW. BEA…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01187311.pdf
EFTA00630374
Dataset 9
2012-03-23
4p
2,679w
Subject:
The J.P. Morgan View: Due diligence on the risk rally
From:
US GIO <
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…2009). The decline in flash PMIs in both China and the Euro area makes it likely that the
global manufacturing PMI
to be released on Apr 1 will also decline. A simple regression of the monthly change in the
global manufacturing PMI
against the monthly change in the Chinese and Euro area flash PMI points to a decline of 1 point in March. This will move the 2- EFTA00630375 month change in the
global manufacturing PMI
to negative territory, pointing…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00630374.pdf
EFTA00955197
Dataset 9
2013-02-22
5p
2,708w
Subject:
The J.P. Morgan View : Amidst near-term fog, focus on medium-term value.
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
From: US GIO To: Undisclosed recipients:; Subject: The J.P. Morgan View : Amidst near-term fog, focus on medium-term value. Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2013 23:43:59 +0000 Attachments: JPM_TheJ.P._Morgan_View_2013-02-22_1060315.pdf Inline-Images: image I .gif :AI Morgan Logo Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View: Amidst near-term fog, focus on medium-term value. Click here for the full Note and disclaimers. • Asset allocation —The near-term outlook…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00955197.pdf
EFTA01474964
Dataset 10
2015-10-02
168p
16,614w
…Global Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain UK Australia Canada Japan China India Brazil Russia EFTA01475006 US ISM Chicago ISM Milwaukee Figure 11: Global Mfg PMI (Red = <50 and lower than last month and prior 3 months)
Global Manufacturing PMI
m/m Sep-15 50.6 52.1 52.3 50.6 52.7 51.7 51.5 52.1 48.6 51.0 49.8 51.2 47.0 49.1 50.2 48.7 39.4 -0…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01474964.pdf
EFTA01071135
Dataset 9
2012-10-09
5p
3,351w
…bank balance sheets, percentof GDP indicators, but not in 2012 45% 1.400 - 57 . .European Central Bank P.1SCI World 40% • Bank of Japan 1.350 56 Equity Index 35% • Federal Reserve 4— 55 1.300 Bank of England 54 30% • 1.250 53 25% • 1.200 52 20% - 51 1.150 15% - 50 1.100 10% • 49 1.050 48 5%
Global manufacturing PMI
survey 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1.000 47 Source: FRB, BEA, ECB, Eurostat…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01071135.pdf
Corpus: 1990-03-17 – 2025-12-01
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20 total
Set 9
17
Set 10
2
Set 11
1