EFTA01176400Dataset 9
8p5,881w
…We do not see it is a negative that there is a heated discussion, and disagreements on austerity in Europe.This is what should happen and is happening among parties in the same country. By More details In ... Washington standards, the spat between Merkel and Hollande is genteel. Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and David Hensley Maybe this debate is simply evidence that the Euro Area is growing into a political unit, exactly what is needed to make EMU work. …
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01176400.pdf
EFTA01176770Dataset 9
8p5,876w
…which investors have found much harder to predict than, say, the swings in the economic cycle. Greek politics, of course, have been harder to predict than most. If the likeli- More details in ... hood that the electoral process leads to a breakdown of relations with the Global Data Watch, Bruce Kasman and David Hensley Troika, and a Greek exit from EMU, is anything close to 50%, then intra-EMU spreads would have significantly further to widen. Europe is surely unpre- …
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01176770.pdf
EFTA01981558Dataset 10
2014-07-118p6,835w
…On the latter, we think a lot of bad news has been priced on this story, and do not see major negative implications on the Portuguese sovereign. • The weaker than expected industrial production data in the Euro area this week led our economists to revise down their expectations for Euro area GDP More details in .. growth for 2Q14 and 3Q14 by 0.75% and 0.5% respectively to 1.0% and Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman, David Hensley and 1…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01981558.pdf
EFTA01178648Dataset 9
2012-06-298p5,896w
…commodities) at the bottom, while the top has high-yield, and EM corporates and sovereigns in USD. We like to add risk through outright More details in ... longs in euro bank bonds, as their acquisition of the ECB as top regulator — Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and David Hensley one that also prints money — as well as the possibility that the ESM will be Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce able to provide equity capital, are huge supports…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01178648.pdf
EFTA01123906Dataset 9
8p5,938w
…rates, improved regulation and a strong fiscal position will prevent a Chinese banking crisis over the next 2-3 years (see Thu, Ng, and Jiang, Chinese banks: rising risk, but still manage- able, Oct 14). More details in ... Fixed income Global Data Watch, Bruce Kasman and David Hensley • Bonds fell again this week, with yields reachinglate August levels. US recession risks are receding, and hopes are rising of decisive policy action on Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01123906.pdf
EFTA01170207Dataset 9
8p5,847w
…proportion ofratings-sensitive official sector investors underlines the importance for France ofmaintaining its AAA status. We remain defensive on infra-EMU spreads, but in smaller size, closing Spain underweights on the risk of increased ECB buying. More details in ... Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and David Hensley • EM local bonds have this month retraced half the September sell-off. After four weeks of significant outflows, EM bond mutual fund flows were about flat Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01170207.pdf
EFTA01181711Dataset 9
2012-10-058p5,861w
…MBS, and undenveighting Germany within the EMU core. • In a paper this week, we described a set of simple systematic rules for Scarce: t lAorgan trading duration, as a complement to more qualitative and discretionary More details in ... approaches (see Investment Strategies No. 74: Simple rules to trade duration). Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and David Hensley These rules seek to capture a range of influences of yields, including Global Markers Outlook and Strategy, Jan Loeys, Bruce economic news, investor…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01181711.pdf
EFTA01181150Dataset 9
2012-09-078p5,854w
…yields are much higher on the week, with the ECB trumping today's growth forecast soft US Employment Report. ECB President Draghi signaled again that the More details in ... new "OMT" program, with no set limit on bond purchases ofup to three years' maturity, should have a much more persistent impact on yields than its Global Data Watch, Bruce Kasman and David Hensley predecessor, the SMP. There remains considerable uncertainty as to when Global Markets Outlook and Strategy, Jan Loeys…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01181150.pdf
EFTA00598496Dataset 9
2013-01-048p6,246w
…Morgan. i8ozx. Barclays likely to be realized. Low delivered risk and continued asset reflation from QE were also ow major themes for 2012. We accept that these drivers are getting More details in ... spent and are thus not as powerful anymore this year. The major tail risks a Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and David Hensley Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys el al. year ago — China hard landing, EMU exits, Middle East war, and US fiscal US Fixed…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00598496.pdf
EFTA01146217Dataset 9
2012-10-268p6,030w
…More broadly, we remain bearish on duration in DM, growth brecast. reflecting reduced tail risks in the Euro area, and the view that elevated long positions in US Treasuries will be unwound as year end approaches. More details in... Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and David Hensley • EM local bonds have largely sidestepped the October rate selloff, and their Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan boys. Bruce 4% gain relative to DM govies (currency hedged) so far this year is…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01146217.pdf
EFTA01146788Dataset 9
2012-08-318p6,176w
…Our best guess is that growth forecast. the ECB will show off its new SMP program by buying 2-3 year debt of Portugal, given that is both in an EFSF program, is compliant, and its 2-year More details in ... funding costs appear to include some 3% in EMU exit risk premium. Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and David Hensley Fixed income Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce Kasman. et al. • Bonds edged up on the week…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01146788.pdf
EFTA01175987Dataset 9
8p5,905w
…hog cycle. During the recession, commodity prices cratered and project financing evaporated. Commodity producers cancelled investment projects, greatly restraining future supply growth. Demand growth since the recession has MOM details In ... outstripped weak supply growth, pushing up commodity prices. But with Global Data Watch, Bruce Kasman and David Hensley much higher commodity prices and easier funding, producers are investing and capacity is increasing. The hog cycle is not dead. Global Markers Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce Kasman, et al…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01175987.pdf
EFTA01177347Dataset 9
8p5,984w
…rather than less, protective of its balance sheet, as evidenced by the temporary closure of regular ECB operations to Greek banks, pending this week's recapitalisation. Meanwhile. More details in ... EMU governments look far from agreeing further fiscal support from the core Global Data Watch. Bruce 'Gasman and David Hensley to the periphery, and will in any case be reluctant to take action before the Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce Greek election. That means the path of…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01177347.pdf
EFTA02702625Dataset 11
2012-11-098p5,904w
…weights that we use to our own globs growth forecast. expectations, just that we'll know it when we see it. • Core euro bond yields arc towards the low end of the range, and we expect More details in ... them to head higher. But we focus more risk on spread compression trades, Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and David Hensley via ovenvcighis in Euro area peripherals, US MBS, and EM local bonds vs Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2011/EFTA02702625.pdf