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"Empirical Research Partners"
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EFTA01069745
Dataset 9
2011-04-26
6p
3,898w
…in margins, 2000-2007, S&P 500 constituents 16% 1.4% 15% 12% 14% 13% 1.0% 12% 0.8% 11% 0.6% 10% 9% 0.4% 8% 02% - 7% 0.0% 6% Reduction in wag es and Total increase in 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 benefits as a percentage pre-tax margins Source: Corporate reports.
Empirical Research Partners
. Past performance of revenue is not indicative of future results. Source: Standard & Poor's. Emp teal…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01069745.pdf
EFTA01069661
Dataset 9
2012-06-18
6p
4,204w
… A postscipt on Beijing However, it's not clear if these trends are just a temporary cyclical lift, or more structural. As noted by
Empirical Research Partners
, even after years of 10%-20% annual wage growth in China, the wage gap vs the US is still very high (Chart 1c). While Chinese workers are less productive than their US counterparts (BCG cites Chinese unit productivity that is 30% of US levels), the gap between the two is still large even…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01069661.pdf
EFTA01176566
Dataset 9
2012-05-02
4p
3,235w
…more to me, so I would pay a higher multiple for them, as long as there is no risk of outright deflation. To adjust for inflation, we adopt an approach used by
Empirical Research Partners
, and invert the P/E ratio in Chart I into an earnings yield (Chart III). The benefit of an earnings yield is that we then can subtract inflation to derive a "real earnings yield required by the market" (Chart IV). After doing so, current valuations…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01176566.pdf
EFTA00601910
Dataset 9
2012-03-15
3p
2,400w
…adjusted 5.0% 8 I as% • 1 6 4 4.0% • 2 - 0 3.0% - 2.5% • -4 6 2.0% • -8 1.5./. • -10 1.0% 12 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 1954 1967 1981 1995 2008 Source: Depanmentot Labo r, BLS,
Empirical Research Partners
. Source: CBO, BE ,OMB. Morgan Private Bank Ow chief economist Michael Vaknin has analyzed the various seasonal adjustments that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses when it reports payrolls…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00601910.pdf
EFTA01136756
Dataset 9
2013-04-01
6p
3,384w
Subject:
Eye on the Market, April 1, 2013: US vs EU Roulette
From:
US MO <
[email protected]
>
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
… . . . . •8% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Federal Reserve Bowl. Source: FR6 of KC.
Empirical Research Partners
. Source: BLS, Eutostat. US initial jobless claims US auto sales Real Personal Consumption 4-week moving average, thousands Millions, sear Expenditures, 3-mo. % change-annualized 750 22 6% 20 4°o 650 • 18 200 550 • 10 0% 450 14 12 •2% 350 10 -4% 250 8 -6% 2005 2007 2009 2011…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01136756.pdf
EFTA01069760
Dataset 9
6p
3,987w
…O2 2012 $24.50 ea 2 F 0O (.1 o 0 o Aug •10 Jan-11 Jun.11 Source: FactSet, Standard and Poor's. Nov-11 Apr-12 Source: Survey of Mamlacturing,
Empirical Research Partners
. The Man Who Fell to Earth (1976): realism sets in on US corporate profits. at least for Q2 2012 With the onset of Q2 earnings season, US equities should hold up over the next few weeks if the pattern since January 2010 is any guide…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01069760.pdf
EFTA01136762
Dataset 9
2013-04-01
5p
3,649w
…change,030. saar 14.0% 4% 13.5% 44% 2% 13.0% 40% 12.5% 36% 2% 12.0% 11.5% -4% 32% 11.0% 6% 10.5% 28% • • • . • • -8% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Federal Reserve Board. Sour e: FRB of KC.
Empirical Research Partners
. Source:BLS. Eurostat. US initial jobless claims US auto sales Real Personal Consumption 4-week moving average, thousands Millions, saar…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01136762.pdf
EFTA01069677
Dataset 9
5p
3,609w
…Statistics. 1 IIE Real Capital Analytics, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, 60% J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Empirical Research Partners
. 50% 40% 30% 20% - 10% 0% High end S&P500 Corp. Inv.Grade Small SW500 US CBD row•End Stale Tax Agg. Sperdng on Nonfarm Unem• Avg. HrV. Retail Earnings Capex Spreads Business index Industrial Office Cap Retail Revenue Work durables/ Payrolls ployment Earnings Income Production Rates Week homes rate Growth In January, we laid out a view that entails…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01069677.pdf
EFTA01149581
Dataset 9
2011-08-06
5p
3,016w
Subject:
JPM Eye on the Market: Centennials: on the US and Italy
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…2012 analyst RE of the late lx KoreanVVer Stagflation from1926- strategist estimates 1970's 5x 2011(trailing) estimates 1926 1934 1942 1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1958 2006 Source: Standard & Poor's. UBIEJS,
Empirical Research Partners
. Source:
Empirical Research Partners
. Italian public debt: another unhappy Centennial and the latest Achilles heel of the European Monetary Union EU policymakers are being forced to defend the European Monetary Union, as investors reduce exposure to Italian sovereign bonds, credit and bank shares…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01149581.pdf
EFTA01188461
Dataset 9
2013-03-06
6p
3,664w
Subject:
Eye on the Market, March 6, 2013
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…may be contributing to an Increase In the number of among large cap stocks.,. managers outperforming, % of large cap core managers 70% outperforming the S&P 500,6-month basis 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% ) 40% 30%• 20% 30% 10% 20% 0% 10% 1926 1938 1950 1962 1974 1986 1998 2010 Jul-03 Jan-05 Jul-OS Jan-08 Jul-09 Jan-11 Jul-12 Source:
Empirical Research Partners
. Sou as: Lipper. Data as of January 2013. Last comment…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01188461.pdf
EFTA01071578
Dataset 9
2012-11-14
5p
3,856w
…As a result, we expect the elevated profit margins of a globalized S&P 500 to persist into 2013. S&P 500 ex-financials net profit margin The Walls of Cash Percent 12% 12% 10% Household cash 10% 10% - to GDP I 8% • 6% - 4% 3% 4% . 2% 1977 1984 1991 1998 2005 2012 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source:
Empirical Research Partners
. Source: Federal ReseweBoanl, BEA. Honorable mention positive trends: rising US domestic crude oil production (a topic…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01071578.pdf
EFTA01116684
Dataset 9
2002-01-01
9p
7,098w
…x 0 a co U- I5 - Source: Bloomberg; computed toren S&P 500 GICS industrieswith at least 8 constituent members. 'Data for Div Fin. Cap Mkts. & IT Sery starts in July2004. '
Empirical Research Partners
weekly portfolio strategy report. February 29, 2012, Exhibits 19-21. EFTA01116685 Eye on the Market I March 22.2012 IP Morgan Reservoir Digs: on energy investing and private equity Whv private eauitv capital in the enerav space? The acronym -E&P" refers to exploration and production…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01116684.pdf
EFTA01187311
Dataset 9
2012-11-14
6p
3,749w
Subject:
J.P. Morgan Eye on the Market: A Star is Born
From:
US GIO <Ma
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…20 -10 -40 Building 1.0% permits -15 .60 -20 0.5% -80 -25 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Source: Bloomberg,. Morgan Securities LLC.LoanPerformanoe. Source: BLS. Census.
Empirical Research Partners
. On China, we are fairly confident that next year's consensus GDP forecasts are achievable. First, the forecast is for 8%, which acknowledges that growth is slowing after the end of the capital spending boom. Second…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01187311.pdf
EFTA01070395
Dataset 9
2012-08-01
8p
6,891w
…companies may trade cheaply compared to stocks paying 0.5 periodic dividends, but which are not growing as fast. 1963 1970 1977 1984 1991 1998 2005 2012 Source: Corporationrep orts. NBER.
Empirical Research Partners
Anatysis. Understanding Big Data and investing in it is a specialized discipline. As in the oil & gas sector, which we address in an Eye on the Market in March 2012, industry knowledge and experience matters. We tend to invest in this area with specialized, dedicated managers…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01070395.pdf
EFTA01070403
Dataset 9
2011-08-02
4p
3,093w
…1200 Average from Current. based Current, based Stag flationary tZy 0 A 4b 4 ./41N- ‘c19 / c,0 40_404\e, ien\be 1985.2011 and on 2012 on 2012 analyst P/E of the late ec• )e 0"" from 1926- strategist estimates 1970% 2011(trailing) estimates Ogq to Source:Standard& Poor's,l/BiFJS,
Empirical Research Partners
. Source: Bloomberg. Targets as of May 3,2011. There is some comfort to be had that US, Japanese, European and Asian P…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01070403.pdf
EFTA01071575
Dataset 9
2011-11-14
3p
2,451w
…P 500 less core CPI 8% As of 11 /11 /11 7% 6% 5% - 4% - 3% - 1% - 0% 1% Assuming a 15% -2% - decline in earnings 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 Source: Robert Shiller, S&P, corporate reports.
Empirical Research Partners
. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer Components of labor market efficiency, as defined by the World Economic Forum in its Global Competitiveness Report Cooperation in labor-employer relations; Flexibility of wage determination; Rigidity of employment…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01071575.pdf
EFTA01176561
Dataset 9
2012-05-02
5p
3,193w
Subject:
J.P. Morgan Eye on the Market 5/2/2012: The road less traveled
From:
US GIO <
[email protected]
>
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…more to me, so I would pay a higher multiple for them, as long as there is no risk of outright deflation. To adjust for inflation, we adopt an approach used by
Empirical Research Partners
, and invert the P/E ratio in Chart I into an earnings yield (Chart III). The benefit of an earnings yield is that we then can subtract inflation to derive a "real earnings yield required by the market" (Chart IV). After doing so, current valuations…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01176561.pdf
EFTA01069770
Dataset 9
2011-07-25
5p
3,842w
…batch of -1% - Post-dividend free cash flow margin reports indicating a slowdown in manufacturing and service •2% '71 74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 sector surveys. Source:
Empirical Research Partners
. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer CBO Congressional Budget Office OMB Office of Management and Budget EFSF European Financial Stability Facility RCA Federal Insurance Contributions Act EU European Union IMF international Monetary Fund iIF institute of International Finance ECB European Central Bank EMU…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01069770.pdf
EFTA01070751
Dataset 9
5p
3,902w
…2% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 different today; as shown, the free cash flow to asset ratio of Source:Corporate reports,
Empirical Research Partners
. US large cap growth stocks is at the highest level in decades. We can debate the multiples they deserve, but the US corporate sector is generating substantial profits in both real and nominal terms. On equities as an asset class, Twain's comment that reports of his death had been greatly exaggerated…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01070751.pdf
Corpus: 1990-03-17 – 2025-12-01
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Set 9
19