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"David Hensley"
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EFTA01981558
Dataset 10
2014-07-11
8p
6,835w
…not see major negative implications on the Portuguese sovereign. • The weaker than expected industrial production data in the Euro area this week led our economists to revise down their expectations for Euro area GDP More details in .. growth for 2Q14 and 3Q14 by 0.75% and 0.5% respectively to 1.0% and Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman,
David Hensley
and 1.5%. However, while these growth revisions reflect a more moderate near Joe Lupton Global Markets Outlook and Strategy…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01981558.pdf
EFTA01181150
Dataset 9
2012-09-07
8p
5,854w
…week, with the ECB trumping today's growth forecast soft US Employment Report. ECB President Draghi signaled again that the More details in ... new "OMT" program, with no set limit on bond purchases ofup to three years' maturity, should have a much more persistent impact on yields than its Global Data Watch, Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
predecessor, the SMP. There remains considerable uncertainty as to when Global Markets Outlook and Strategy, Jan Loeys, Bruce bond buying will begin, not…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01181150.pdf
EFTA01176904
Dataset 9
8p
5,973w
…where a leftist government unilater- ally stops austerity and debt payments could easily see the rest of EMU stopping payments. A Greek government running out of cash would instead write IOUs, which would soon end up as a new currency running alongside More details in ... old EMU bills. Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
What impact? Our economists judge that Greek exit would push Euro GDP Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce down a further 2%…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01176904.pdf
EFTA02702625
Dataset 11
2012-11-09
8p
5,904w
…we use to our own globs growth forecast. expectations, just that we'll know it when we see it. • Core euro bond yields arc towards the low end of the range, and we expect More details in ... them to head higher. But we focus more risk on spread compression trades, Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
via ovenvcighis in Euro area peripherals, US MBS, and EM local bonds vs Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys, Bruce DM. …
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2011/EFTA02702625.pdf
EFTA00598496
Dataset 9
2013-01-04
8p
6,246w
…Barclays likely to be realized. Low delivered risk and continued asset reflation from QE were also ow major themes for 2012. We accept that these drivers are getting More details in ... spent and are thus not as powerful anymore this year. The major tail risks a Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys el al. year ago — China hard landing, EMU exits, Middle East war, and US fiscal US Fixed Income Markets…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00598496.pdf
EFTA01157301
Dataset 9
2011-02-07
4p
2,268w
Subject:
Eye on the Market, February 7, 2011
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…2012 in the developed world; we now relegate gold to its normal portfolio role as "tail risk" insurance, and less of a trading vehicle for speculating on fiat currency problems. EFTA01157303 Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer [a] "Surveys signal second windfor global recovery",
David Hensley
and Joseph Lupton, JP Morgan Global Data Watch, February 4, 2011. [b] Options the EU has reportedly been discussing: reducing the rate payable to the European Financial Stability Facility by borrowing countries; allowing the EFSF…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01157301.pdf
EFTA00598000
Dataset 9
8p
5,869w
…but this logic does not work well. High public sector debt leads to fiscal tightening, low growth and thus easier monetary policy, which boosts bond prices. The weaker currencies and low More details In ... wage growth of these countries by themselves support earnings growth of Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
their companies who frequently operate on a multinational basis. It is worth overweighting the exporters in the US and Europe. Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan !says…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00598000.pdf
EFTA01146217
Dataset 9
2012-10-26
8p
6,030w
…on duration in DM, growth brecast. reflecting reduced tail risks in the Euro area, and the view that elevated long positions in US Treasuries will be unwound as year end approaches. More details in... Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
• EM local bonds have largely sidestepped the October rate selloff, and their Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan boys. Bruce 4% gain relative to DM govies (currency hedged) so far this year is in keeping Kasman. et al.…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01146217.pdf
EFTA01172027
Dataset 9
8p
6,086w
…of sourcing dollars from outside the US. Nonetheless, USD basis swaps are still sufficiently elevated to create opportu- More details in ... nities: for example, 2-year Japanese government bonds, swapped into USD, Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
yield a percentage point more than the equivalent US Treasuries. Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce • Further liquidity support for Euro area banks is on the cards next week. With Kasman. el al. the ECB's policy rate…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01172027.pdf
EFTA01170770
Dataset 9
8p
5,884w
…smoothly. Our view is that private demand for peripheral bonds will remain weak. The reduced liquidity and increased volatility of More details in ... Spanish and Italian bonds since the summer is a clear negative, while the Euro Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
area's slide towards probable recession makes fiscal targets all the harder to hit. That underlines the importance of official support, from the ECB in the first Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01170770.pdf
EFTA01146788
Dataset 9
2012-08-31
8p
6,176w
…its new SMP program by buying 2-3 year debt of Portugal, given that is both in an EFSF program, is compliant, and its 2-year More details in ... funding costs appear to include some 3% in EMU exit risk premium. Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
Fixed income Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce Kasman. et al. • Bonds edged up on the week. As so often over the past few years, all eyes are US…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01146788.pdf
EFTA01146380
Dataset 9
2012-10-12
8p
6,029w
…that the promise of the OMT backstop gvAth forecast. marks a major step forward in the Euro area's crisis management, and arc encouraged by some tentative signs of capital returning to the periphery. More details in... These include a fall in Spain's Target 2 balance and bond managers' shift to Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
ovenveight peripheral bonds, for the first time since 2010, as reported in our Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01146380.pdf
EFTA01175987
Dataset 9
8p
5,905w
…commodity prices cratered and project financing evaporated. Commodity producers cancelled investment projects, greatly restraining future supply growth. Demand growth since the recession has MOM details In ... outstripped weak supply growth, pushing up commodity prices. But with Global Data Watch, Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
much higher commodity prices and easier funding, producers are investing and capacity is increasing. The hog cycle is not dead. Global Markers Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce Kasman, et al. • Why do Japanese investors keep…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01175987.pdf
EFTA01181711
Dataset 9
2012-10-05
8p
5,861w
…the EMU core. • In a paper this week, we described a set of simple systematic rules for Scarce: t lAorgan trading duration, as a complement to more qualitative and discretionary More details in ... approaches (see Investment Strategies No. 74: Simple rules to trade duration). Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
These rules seek to capture a range of influences of yields, including Global Markers Outlook and Strategy, Jan Loeys, Bruce economic news, investor perceptions of risk, and carry…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01181711.pdf
EFTA01176400
Dataset 9
8p
5,881w
…there is a heated discussion, and disagreements on austerity in Europe.This is what should happen and is happening among parties in the same country. By More details In ... Washington standards, the spat between Merkel and Hollande is genteel. Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
Maybe this debate is simply evidence that the Euro Area is growing into a political unit, exactly what is needed to make EMU work. Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce Kasman…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01176400.pdf
EFTA01178648
Dataset 9
2012-06-29
8p
5,896w
…bottom, while the top has high-yield, and EM corporates and sovereigns in USD. We like to add risk through outright More details in ... longs in euro bank bonds, as their acquisition of the ECB as top regulator — Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
one that also prints money — as well as the possibility that the ESM will be Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce able to provide equity capital, are huge supports, in our view…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01178648.pdf
EFTA01171349
Dataset 9
8p
5,883w
…inaction on the economy. In EM, inflation is turning and will move central banks increasingly towards easing. All eyes are here on China where we believe the 12-month inflation rate will be coming down fast and is inducing a move towards More details in ... monetary easing. Global Data Watch, Bruce Kasrnan and
David Hensley
Fixed income Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce • Greek politics repriced the yield curve lower, but the aborted referendum was Kasman, el al.…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01171349.pdf
EFTA01149274
Dataset 9
8p
5,905w
…program. Spain and Italy come to the market next week with issuance. And further ahead, the More details in ... EFSF's €44Obn total capacity will be sorely tested to match the ECB's pace of Global Data Watch, Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
bond purchases (€56bn in the first four weeks). Spain is our preferred UW. Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan boys. Bruce • The ECB changed tack by more than expected this week in response to the Kasman. el…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01149274.pdf
EFTA01176770
Dataset 9
8p
5,876w
…than, say, the swings in the economic cycle. Greek politics, of course, have been harder to predict than most. If the likeli- More details in ... hood that the electoral process leads to a breakdown of relations with the Global Data Watch, Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
Troika, and a Greek exit from EMU, is anything close to 50%, then intra-EMU spreads would have significantly further to widen. Europe is surely unpre- Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan Loeys. Bruce…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01176770.pdf
EFTA01149242
Dataset 9
8p
5,954w
…economy much. It has certainly not lost its ability to impact the markets directly targeted, as evidenced by the near 50bp rally in 30yr Treasuries this More details in ... week. The Fed's unexpected decision to reinvest MBS and Agency bullet Global Data Watch. Bruce Kasman and
David Hensley
maturities back into the mortgage market (instead of into Treasuries), has decisively shifted the supply-demand landscape in that market, and prompts Global Markets Outlook and Strategy. Jan theys. Bruce us…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01149242.pdf
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