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"Conference Board"
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EFTA01088951
Dataset 9
3p
1,062w
…capacity for generating goods and services without setting off a significant rise in inflation. He called it "post-crisis relapse disorder," which he defined as behavior based on the expectation that the economic outlook will be grim merely because it has been so grim for months before. Still, another positive sign for the economy came this week when the
Conference Board
said consumers were more upbeat about the economy than they had been in the last seven years. On Wednesday…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01088951.pdf
EFTA01187639
Dataset 9
2012-12-11
6p
3,691w
Subject:
Eye on the Market, December 11, 2012
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…USD. 197010 2011 Children and elderlyas a percent of working age population LUX 110% HK % sop 100% 25 • KOR 71NN■ • 90% 15 Japan ■ ■ Germany • CNN 70% „,cc • 60% US ■ • UK • 50% bltaxdko 40% China -5 0 20 ao 60 80 100 120 140 160 30% EIU 2011 Global Democracy Index 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20® 2010 2020 2030 Ki a most democratic, 160 • most authoritarian] Source: United Nations. Source: The
Conference Board
. Economist Intelligence Unit. United…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01187639.pdf
EFTA01181537
Dataset 9
2012-10-01
5p
2,776w
Subject:
Eye on the Market, October 1, 2012
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…Railway boom collapses, half epidemic arrives in Spain Spain's entry Into of Spanish financial sector bankrupt Spanish Civil War the Eurozone -30% 1855 1867 1879 1891 1903 1915 1927 1939 1951 1963 1975 1987 1999 2011 Sources: -Statistics on WorldPopulation, GOPandPer Capita GOP .University of Grcohgen; Standard 8 Poor's;
Conference Board
; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Dep Memento de Historia Econernica e Instituciones From a markets perspective, the direness of Spain's situation is no secret, and forced…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01181537.pdf
EFTA01187646
Dataset 9
2012-12-11
5p
3,710w
…thousands USD, 1970 to 2011 Children and elderly asa percent of working age population 110% 25 - 100% 90% 15 - 80% japan 70% Germany p nce 5 - 60% UR 50% Mexico brazil 40% China 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 303*/ EAU 2011 Global Democracy Index 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 [0 = most democratic, 160 = most authoritarian] Source: United Nations. Source:The
Conference Board
. Economist InMIbgence Unit. United Nations. EFTA01187646 Eye on…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01187646.pdf
EFTA01071128
Dataset 9
4p
2,835w
…Phylloxera resulting from Railway boom collapses, half epidemic arrives in Spain Spaln's entry into of Spanish financial sector bankrupt Spanish Civil War the Eurozone -30% 1855 1867 1879 1891 1903 1915 1927 1939 1951 1963 1975 1987 1999 2011 Sources: 'Statistics on WardPopulation, GDP andPer Canis GOP' .University of Groningen: Standard 8 Poor's;
Conference Board
; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Dep anamento de HistoriaEconamicae Instituciones From a markets perspective, the direness of Spain's situation is no secret…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01071128.pdf
EFTA01377056
Dataset 10
2016-08-19
1p
309w
…Germany. Eurozone: Markit Tuesday (August) Manufacturing. Services & Composite August 23 China:
Conference Board
Leading PMI (August) Economic Index (July) Eurozone: Consumer Confidence Singapore: Consumer Price Inflation (August) (July) Taiwan: Export Orders (July) PMI Manufacturing (August) Japan: Small Business Confidence Germany: GDP (02) Wednesday Existing Home Sales (August) (August) August 24 Australia: Construction Work (02) Malaysia: Consumer Price Inflation (July) Durable Goods Orders (July) Japan: Japanese Purchases of Germany: Import and Export Prices Thursday Foreign Stocks and Bonds. Indices (July). IFO…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01377056.pdf
EFTA01914828
Dataset 10
2012-12-07
1p
207w
Subject:
RE: Boris LOI 6
From:
Boris Nikolic
To:
Jeffrey[
[email protected]
]
…fight. Not much or anything I got in my life easely. Have been on the call since8am straight. Have a
conference board
call of a company I am on a board. WI call you in 2-3h when is done. Thank you B Sent from my Windows Phone From: Jeffrey Sent: 12/7/2012 3:57 PM To: Boris Nikolic Subject: Re: Boris LOI 6 Will restructure so that there is a put and call on shares . Capital gains . Bill…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01914828.pdf
EFTA01458556
Dataset 10
2016-10-02
1p
624w
…for example, in the economy. See Harry X. Wu, 'China's Growth and Productnnty Performance Debate Revisited - Accounting for China's States of Growth with a New Data Set" The
Conference Board
EPWP N14-01, January 2014. An even more exhaustive reconstruction of GDP data by Rosen and Bao 120151 concludes instead that GDP growth as reported by the authorities seems about nght. Rosen and Bao's man interest, though was in measunng the size of the economy, which they…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01458556.pdf
EFTA01128304
Dataset 9
2015-05-04
18p
896w
…Shortridge Giovanni Gola Joi Ito iOS Hacker's Handbook Co-lead of data security Member of Google's Director, MIT Media co-author & analytics coverage at Project Vault Lab Teneo Capital implementation team Black Hat
Conference Board
member of NY Review Board member NYU Poly Cyber Awarded DARPA Cyber Times & Sony Symposium advisory Fast Track grant Recipient of DARPA Chairman, PureTech board member Cyber Fast Track grant Speaker at infosec Early investor in Flickr, conferences globally Last.fm & Twitter 15…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01128304.pdf
EFTA01089678
Dataset 9
2012-10-25
44p
21,521w
…The US credit rating is downgraded. i Fat * A .) Key dates Note: AMT = Alternative Minimum Tax, ACA = Affordable Care 30 Oct
Conference Board
consumer confidence Act 1 Nov ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index for October Source: CBO, UBS, as of 9 October 2012 2 Nov Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for October " Scenario probabilities are based on qualitative assessment. 6 Nov US presidential and Congressional elections Note: Past performance is not an indication of future returns. UBS For…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01089678.pdf
EFTA00397162
Dataset 9
2013-01-23
7p
2,279w
Subject:
Early Tour 1.23.13
From:
Ike Groff
…demand) (—15% of 2013 funding needs now covered) • France January manufacturing sentiment index 86.0 versus estimate 90.0 and 89.0 in December • Netanyahu weakened in Israeli election (Likud-Beitenu ticket won 31 seats vs 42 now in 120-seat Knesset) • Japan January BOJ monthly economic report upgrades assessment of economy (1st upgrade in 8 months) • China December
conference board
leading economic index rises at slower pace (+0.4% vs 1.1% prior) Leading European Sectors: Healthcare +1.28%…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00397162.pdf
EFTA00591133
Dataset 9
2013-03-09
7p
2,529w
…US household income — that's "real," as in "adjusted for inflation" -- was $50,054 in zon, the most recent data available from the US Census Bureau. That's 8% lower than the 2007 peak of $54489." He goes on to show that consumer expectations strike a serious contrast with the mood from within the Dow Jones Revival Tent: —
Conference Board
income expectations, six months hence I5 II I -15 '075 Del 05 (16 '07 '08 119 '10 'II '12 Plant, …
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00591133.pdf
EFTA01197808
Dataset 9
2014-12-28
40p
15,985w
Subject:
Greg Brown's Weekend Reading and Other Things.... 12/28/2014
From:
Gregory Brown
To:
undisclosed-recipients:;
…Beats me. But it seems to be working pretty well so far. EFTA01197815 Leading Indicators in U.S. Rose in November for Third Month The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in November for a third straight month, a sign the economy is gaining traction heading into 2015. The
Conference Board
's index, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, increased 0.6 percent in November, matching the prior month's gain, the New…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01197808.pdf
EFTA00612097
Dataset 9
33p
9,386w
…00 - is 42 - 20 .03 - 23 4.4 4% - - 24 45 $ $$$$$$$$doda dad $ $ * $ $ $ $ aaaaakaaaaaaaaaa / 3 3 / 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 —LEIY0Y — M0moa00 Sprea0 6 MOr609 FOrveld —LEI Ye? — Early Lale &Delors 9 months formed ECRI's leading index, which moves faster than the Leading Economic Index of the
Conference Board
. has turned over decisively, showing that growth will still be strongly positive…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00612097.pdf
EFTA01069643
Dataset 9
4p
2,913w
…again) overestimate them, PayrolpredicMn error, thousands. 6-month movingaverage iSM Cord ed BLS 300 65 so - overestimation 60 - 4o • 200 55 • 30 - 20 • 100 50 - 10 • as - 0• 40 - -10 - •100 35 - -20 - SD • 30- -200 25 • -40 • underestimation 300 20 -50 - 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Source: BLS.ISM,
Conference Board
, JPMAM. Source: BLS. ISM.
Conference Board
. JPMAM. China When I started at J.P. Morgan in 1987, China's share of global…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01069643.pdf
EFTA01188129
Dataset 9
2013-02-19
6p
3,940w
Subject:
Eye on the Market: Fifty Trades of Grey
From:
US GIO czi
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…in recent decades, as intangibles make up a larger percentage of total assets. As an example, in 2009, a paper from The
Conference Board
estimated intangibles at 54% of total assets for US pharmaceutical companies, and at 43% of total assets for US technology companies. [f] Inflation was at the same level in 2003 as it was in 1997, yet policy rates were 4.5% higher in 1997. This is a point that Stanford's John Taylor, a critic of…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01188129.pdf
EFTA01136756
Dataset 9
2013-04-01
6p
3,384w
Subject:
Eye on the Market, April 1, 2013: US vs EU Roulette
From:
US MO <
[email protected]
>
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
… WWI. WWII and Spanish Civil War excluded 60% World Wars: mobilization, destruction & rebuilding — France 50% — italy — Spain 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 1826 1838 1850 1862 1874 1886 1898 1910 1922 1934 1946 1958 1970 1982 1994 2006 Sources: eStabstica on WorldPopeditio,GDPandPer Capes GDP iverstyolGroningen:
Conference Board
. Bioombeig. Data as oilFebruery2013. See attached PDF for circled references to prior periods of long-term growth rates below zero. BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics CBO Congressional Budget Office C&1…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01136756.pdf
EFTA01188408
Dataset 9
2013-02-26
4p
3,074w
…Paris Bourse elected, It Great Depression, -10% - worsened by delayed move on French industry crash of 1882 and factory failure of Union strikes and to drop gold standard Generale rising tariffs -20% - 1826 1838 1850 1862 1874 1886 1898 1910 1922 1934 1946 1958 1970 1982 1994 2006 Sources: -Statistts on WorldPopulation, GDP andPer Capita GDP,UniversItyof Groningen:
Conference Board
, Bloomberg. 2 Charles Gave of Gavekal Research has written a fascinating, brief essay on the politics of Europe (entrepreneurs vs…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01188408.pdf
EFTA01177405
Dataset 9
2012-06-04
5p
2,930w
Subject:
J.P. Morgan Eye on the Market 6/4/2012: The Squid and the Whale
From:
US GIO <
[email protected]
>
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…but it's important to understand that
Conference Board
and ISM surveys measure "whether it's easier to find a job", and "whether purchasing managers intend to hire more people". They measure direction but not magnitude. As a result, a reading of 55 on the ISM employment survey doesn't always mean the same thing. As shown in the second chart below, a model which predicts payrolls using
Conference Board
and ISM surveys did a decent job during the 1990…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01177405.pdf
EFTA01188135
Dataset 9
5p
3,996w
…s Q has been overstated in recent decades, as intangibles make up a larger percentage of total assets. As an example, in 2009, a paper from The
Conference Board
estimated intangibles at 54% of total assets for US pharmaceutical companies, and at 43% of total assets for US technology companies. 3 EFTA01188137 Eye on the Market I February 19, 201 J.P.Morganj Fifty Trades of Grey: an illustrated story of investment, temptation, addiction and the cost ofmoney Lots of…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01188135.pdf
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