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EFTA01136762
Dataset 9
2013-04-01
5p
3,649w
…saar Expenditures, 3-mo. °/* change-annualized 750 22 - 6% 20 - 4% 650 • 18- 2% 550 • 16 0O/ 450 • 14 -2% 12 - 350 -4% 10 - 250 • 8 • 6% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Sou ce: Department& Labor. Source: Autodata Source:
Bureau of Economic Analysis
. US housing Inventory Is steadily AZ, NV, FL & CA: Phoenix rising Fifty Trades of Grey: Fed purchases of declining, Million units Percentchange,YoY Treasuries and Agencies…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01136762.pdf
EFTA01388568
Dataset 10
1p
515w
…Macroeconomics Annual 1986, thanks in large part to decisive Fed action. Unfortunately, this translated into a mere Volume 1. pp. 15 - 90. 2.4% of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for both 2014 and 2015, according to the latest estimates of the
Bureau of Economic Analysis
. For 2016, we now forecast 1.8%. Potential U.S. growth is probably quite a bit lower still. The same is true in other developed markets that embraced OE early on. At 2%…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01388568.pdf
EFTA01384976
Dataset 10
1p
262w
Farmland Wires vs. Interest Rates $2.800 $2.600 52.400 $2,200 Dollars (S) Per Mn 52.000 $1.800 81.600 $1.400 61200 51.000 $800 Ot 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 -USDA Farmland Value (Intlalion-Adjusted) U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Note: 11w GDP chain-type price index is used to convert NASS current-dollar statistics to 2009=100 equivalents (
Bureau of Economic Analysis
, Department of Commerce). Farm real…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01384976.pdf
EFTA01069732
Dataset 9
2011-07-05
7p
4,848w
…155 13% 145 135 11% 125 9% 115 105 7%' 95 5% Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Sou ce: Moody's Commercial Property Price Index, S8P/CaseShiler Comp osite-a) Home Price Index. Source: FederalReserve Board,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
. Any silver linings? Unlike residential property, the oversupply of office property was less severe. To illustrate this, consider the chart below (left)…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01069732.pdf
EFTA01179060
Dataset 9
2012-07-17
6p
3,710w
Subject:
JPM Eye on the Market, July 17, 2012
From:
US GIG
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…Index, quarter of GDP trough = 100 Ratio of 2-year earnings growth to 2-year nominalGOPgrowth 130 15x 143x 125 10x 5.4x 120 115 Average sk: 4.2x Average peak: 2.1x 110 105 Current 100 recovery 95 0 1 2 3 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 16 -10x 4 Quarters since GDP trough 1952 1950 1966 1973 1980 1987 1994 2001 2038 Source:
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source:Standard& Poor's…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01179060.pdf
EFTA01100727
Dataset 9
2010-03-18
6p
1,249w
…drop kick us out of this recession," The Hill reported. "This [stimulus] is about getting this out and spent in 18 months to create 3.5 million jobs." Technically, the recession ended during the third fiscal quarter of 2009, according to the
Bureau of Economic Analysis
. But with unemployment hovering around over 8 percent for the last three years, some economists are no longer talking about calling the current economic period a recovery. Brad DeLong, an economist with UC Berkley…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01100727.pdf
EFTA01139728
Dataset 9
2013-12-30
8p
1,898w
…government shutdown, were new or at least revivals. Below are in charts to illustrate a depressing first year of President Obama's second term: Economic Winners and Losers Profits +44.7% Change since the end of 2007. Stocks +43.2% Incomes +3.9% uP DOWN Job, —0.9% -10% — Housing —10.4% -20 - -30 - -40 - Latest available data. Stocks are the S&P 500 2013 plus their dividends. Sources:
Bureau of Economic Analysis
; Bloomberg; Semler Research; Bureau of Labor Statistics…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01139728.pdf
EFTA01069760
Dataset 9
6p
3,987w
…GDP trough = 100 Ratio of 2-year earnings growth to 2-year nominal GDP growth 130, 15x 14.3x 125 10x 5.4x 120 115 Average • ak: 4.2 x Average peak: 2.1x 110 — — — 105 100 95 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -10x Quarters since GDP trough 1952 1959 1966 1973 1980 1987 1994 2001 2008 Source:
Bureau of Economic Analysis
. Source: Standard 8 Poor's…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01069760.pdf
EFTA01388580
Dataset 10
1p
627w
…German The Eurozone, also cal€ed the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 equivalent of U.S. Treasury bonds of the 28 European Union (EU) member slates which have adopted the euro as their common currency. The
Bureau of Economic Analysis
€s a U.S. government agency which produces economic statistics that enable government The Federal Reserve System or Fed, which serves as the U.S. and business decision makers to follow and understand the central bank, was established…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01388580.pdf
EFTA02696364
Dataset 11
2012-01-09
18p
2,873w
…Macro ...But This Is Not 2008 U.S. Households Deleveraging %GDP % Disposable Household Debt (LHS) Income 130% —Debt Service (RHS) 15% 120% 14% 110% 100% 13% 90% 12% 80% 11% 70% 60% 10% 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 Source: Bloomberg Source: Federal Reserve,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
, As of 12/30/11 Note: Debt Service is Debt payments as % of disposed° personal income CO z z z cc cc O a. O. a Sources: FRB, BEA…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2011/EFTA02696364.pdf
EFTA01188129
Dataset 9
2013-02-19
6p
3,940w
Subject:
Eye on the Market: Fifty Trades of Grey
From:
US GIO czi
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…bills 4% I \N -6% 1970 1975 1981 1986 1992 1997 2003 2008 Source: FederalHousing Finance Agency. Bureau of Labor Statistics. St. Louis Federal Reserve Michael Cembalest J.P. Morgan Asset Management BEA
Bureau of Economic Analysis
CMBS Commercial mortgage backed securities CLO Collateralized loan issuance CBO Congressional Budget Office FICA Federal Insurance Contributions Act QE Quantitative easing SOTU State of the Union TPC Tax Policy Center (Brookings) Notes [a] Vladimir Lenin, "Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism", Section VIII…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01188129.pdf
EFTA01069647
Dataset 9
1999-12-31
5p
3,302w
…The Sick exited GIPS 170 - Men of Europe" exposure in Foreign affiliates 1.400 EoTM was r♦ 160160- core bond of US companies 1.200 published funds 150- ISO- 1.000 140- 140 800 Greece 130- Ireland 120- 600 Portugal 110- 400 Spain 100- 200 90 82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 0 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Source:
Bureau of Economic Analysis
…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01069647.pdf
EFTA00733526
Dataset 9
2010-08-10
5p
2,336w
Subject:
Eye on the Market, August 9, 2010
From:
Justin X Gratz czi
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…So cid Insurance -300 75% Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Jun-00 Jun-02 Jun-04 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wall StreetJournal. Source:
Bureau of Economic Analysis
. The recent decline in manufacturing orders relative to production and inventories suggests a slower period ahead, in which case 225k-250k in monthly payroll gains shown above may be hard to achieve. Since the cow diagram from our 2010 outlook publication…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00733526.pdf
EFTA01070403
Dataset 9
2011-08-02
4p
3,093w
… 70% Whether the Fed will engage in another round of securities 60% purchases is anyone's guess; they might, but it may not 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 matter, since it's hard to argue that a high cost of capital is Source: Federal Reserve,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
. "Will it bun? Macroeconomic effects offiscal consolidation", International Monetary Fund, October 2010; see figures 3.7 and 3.8. EFTA01070403 Eye on the Market I August 2.2011 J.P…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01070403.pdf
EFTA01071186
Dataset 9
2012-10-31
6p
4,582w
…5; 34 tio Guangzhou 84 i cy cE 5 cl' 0ir2 0 . Shanghai University of Southampton (UK) and OECD: see footnote 2 73 Source: National Weather Service,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
. The Summer 2011 issue of International Economy Magazine had an article on the impact of natural disasters on growth, and the majority of contributors shared this point of view. 2 "Ranking of the world's cities most exposed to coastalflooding", 2007, and "A global ranking ofport cities with high…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01071186.pdf
EFTA00610119
Dataset 9
5p
2,531w
…on the Market j February 19, 201 J.P.Morgan Filly Trades of Grey: an illustrated story ofinvestment, temptation, addiction and the cost ofmoney BEA
Bureau of Economic Analysis
CMBS Commercial mortgage backed securities CLO Collateralized loan issuance CBO Congressional Budget Office FICA Federal Insurance Contributions Act QE Quantitative easing SOW State of the Union TPC Tax Policy Center (Brookings) IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates do not provide tar advice. Accordingly, any discussion ofU.S…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00610119.pdf
EFTA00690204
Dataset 9
2015-06-01
4p
908w
Subject:
Fwd: BEA Extends BE-10 Survey Filing
From:
Richard Kahn
To:
"Jeffrey E." <
[email protected]
>
…Viola 30, 2015 Please feel free to discuss any aspect of this Alert with your regular Sadis & Goldberg contact or with any of the partners whose names and contact information can be found at the end of the Alert. The U.S.
Bureau of Economic Analysis
("BEA") conducts the BE-1.0 Benchmark Survey every five years regarding the extent of investment abroad by US individuals and entities. This year, each US person who had a foreign affiliate at any…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00690204.pdf
EFTA01157301
Dataset 9
2011-02-07
4p
2,268w
Subject:
Eye on the Market, February 7, 2011
From:
US GIO
To:
Undisclosed recipients:;
…1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 Source: NBER, corperate reports, EmpiricalResearch Partners. Source:
Bureau of Economic Analysis
. To reiterate a point from our 2011 Outlook, S&P 500 revenues over the last 15 years have been considerably more linked to World GDP growth than US GDP growth. The internationalization of profits over the last 15 years is what has allowed US equities to at times be less sensitive to US economic conditions. As for the outlook for global GDP growth…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01157301.pdf
EFTA01071561
Dataset 9
2011-11-01
5p
3,613w
…sa 180 r I 800 12% - 160 I Period of extreme monetary I 10% - I and fiscal uncertainty 700 8% - Consumption 140 6% - 120 600 4% - 100 2% 80 60 40 Disposable income 20 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: Bloomberg. Source:
Bureau of Economic Analysis
. US economic Erowth and profits outlook: better than very low expectations as 2011 comes to a close • Consumer spending has held up better than expected. However…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA01071561.pdf
EFTA00629696
Dataset 9
2016-06-21
4p
1,052w
Subject:
FW: Compliance Dates - Third Quarter 2016
From:
Richard Kahn
To:
Jeffrey Epstein <
[email protected]
>
…schedl3.htm Forms 3, 4 & 5 (Sec 16 Filings). Corporate insiders - meaning a company's officers and directors, and any beneficial owners of more than ten percent of a class of the company's equity securities registered under Section 12 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 - must file with the SEC a statement of ownership regarding those securities. See: https://www.sec.gov/answers/form345.htm
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Filings ("BEA") (BE-11, BE-13, BE-577, etc.)…
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00629696.pdf
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