https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01371106.pdf
31 October 2017
Railroads
Canadian Rails
market has likely peaked, with North American light vehicle production
expected to be down 2% in 2017 after 7 years of expansion, which is
pressuring auto volumes (-9% YTD).
Figure 64: Motor vehicles and parts carloads trends Figure 65: North American light vehicle production is
((U.S. + Can) since 2012 expected to be down 2.1% in 2017
30%
30,000 40%
20%
30%
25,000
20,000
20%
10%
10%
0%
(10%)
_I -
0% ci
15,000
(10%) (20%)
10,000 (20%) (30%)
V in kp alp ra m 0 in kb la w
ne en n1 ta. nr tr. in '0 to N. N.
N 8
N 8
N rel ••4 8
N N
8 N
8 N N
8 N Rs R. .9 N ,9 (9, N8 8
el
A -.., ea ea ea ea
Avg. Weekly Carloads —YoY
Sam Danao• Saft.AM
I Son 0_ Sr* *as mos* Mita: If00LOAN/
• Non-metallic minerals & products - This category accounts for roughly
12% of total carloads traffic (ex-intermodal) in North America - 80/0 in
Canada and 14% in the U.S. It is comprised of crushed stone & gravel,
nonmetallic minerals, and stone, clay, and glass. Demand for these
products is generally driven by construction and industrial activity. The
oil and gas industry is a large customer for nonmetallic minerals as
drilling activity drives demand for aggregates/gravel and frac sand which
has been extremely volatile over the past several years.
Figure 66: Non-metallic minerals & products carloads
trends (US + Can) since 2012
50,000 25%
I Figure 67: U.S. frac sand carloads closely track the rig
count
150%
20% 100%
45,000
15% 50%
40,000 10% •
0%
35,000 5% >- (50%)
0% 96% Correlation
30,000 (100%)
(5%) N en. en
25,000 o o O O O O O O O O O
(10%) N N est N N N N N N N
20,000
IN N en rei CT O 1.11 O LO N N
(15%) C
aa U.S.
b i7
Rig Count
B' as as
e e —41— Frac Sand Carloads (U.S. Class I rails)
i0 (0 ,0 10 (0 10
Avg. Weekly Carloads —YoY
Son Detirsay Bent W Sane otsw eleke apHy STO
• DB's Oil Services and Equipment team forecasts moderate rig count
growth in 2018. Overall rig counts in North America are expected to grow
5.9% yoy in 2018. On a per country basis, growth is estimated at +5%
Page 32 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0064302
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00210486
EFTA01371106
AI Analysis
Summarize this document or ask questions about its contents using Claude.
Typical cost: less than $0.01 per query with Haiku. Model can be changed in Settings.
Add API Key in Settings31 October 2017
Railroads
Canadian Rails
market has likely peaked, with North American light vehicle production
expected to be down 2% in 2017 after 7 years of expansion, which is
pressuring auto volumes (-9% YTD).
Figure 64: Motor vehicles and parts carloads trends Figure 65: North American light vehicle production is
((U.S. + Can) since 2012 expected to be down 2.1% in 2017
30%
30,000 40%
20%
30%
25,000
20,000
20%
10%
10%
0%
(10%)
_I -
0% ci
15,000
(10%) (20%)
10,000 (20%) (30%)
V in kp alp ra m 0 in kb la w
ne en n1 ta. nr tr. in '0 to N. N.
N 8
N 8
N rel ••4 8
N N
8 N
8 N N
8 N Rs R. .9 N ,9 (9, N8 8
el
A -.., ea ea ea ea
Avg. Weekly Carloads —YoY
Sam Danao• Saft.AM
I Son 0_ Sr* *as mos* Mita: If00LOAN/
• Non-metallic minerals & products - This category accounts for roughly
12% of total carloads traffic (ex-intermodal) in North America - 80/0 in
Canada and 14% in the U.S. It is comprised of crushed stone & gravel,
nonmetallic minerals, and stone, clay, and glass. Demand for these
products is generally driven by construction and industrial activity. The
oil and gas industry is a large customer for nonmetallic minerals as
drilling activity drives demand for aggregates/gravel and frac sand which
has been extremely volatile over the past several years.
Figure 66: Non-metallic minerals & products carloads
trends (US + Can) since 2012
50,000 25%
I Figure 67: U.S. frac sand carloads closely track the rig
count
150%
20% 100%
45,000
15% 50%
40,000 10% •
0%
35,000 5% >- (50%)
0% 96% Correlation
30,000 (100%)
(5%) N en. en
25,000 o o O O O O O O O O O
(10%) N N est N N N N N N N
20,000
IN N en rei CT O 1.11 O LO N N
(15%) C
aa U.S.
b i7
Rig Count
B' as as
e e —41— Frac Sand Carloads (U.S. Class I rails)
i0 (0 ,0 10 (0 10
Avg. Weekly Carloads —YoY
Son Detirsay Bent W Sane otsw eleke apHy STO
• DB's Oil Services and Equipment team forecasts moderate rig count
growth in 2018. Overall rig counts in North America are expected to grow
5.9% yoy in 2018. On a per country basis, growth is estimated at +5%
Page 32 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0064302
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00210486
EFTA01371106