https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01367375.pdf
31 May 2015
Integrated Oil
US Integrated Oils
Pi ElWily Growth Drivers
Volume growth in the forecast period (2015-2020) will be scarce. Among the
most material contributions to production in the near-term are the fields from
the Litoral de Tabasco business unit in Mexico's Southeastern business unit.
The crude from the fields is mostly light (-37 API on average). The continued
production ramp of the Tsimin field is likely the biggest spotlight in the group
(Woodmac estimated -50 mboe/d in production from 2014-2017). Longer-
term growth will be supported mostly by the heavy crude producing Ku-
Maloob Zaap fields (Ayatsil and Tekel) in the Northeastern business unit.
Wood Mackenzie estimates a production start in 2017 with peak production of
oil reaching -102 mboe/d by 2021. The fields are expected to be tendered as
part of Mexico's Round 1 as part of a joint venture opportunity with Pemex.
Primary Risks
We view the near-term risk to production as minimal as contributions from
project startups are marginal. In our view, the longer-term (2017-2020) risk to
production in Mexico is significant and is underlined by continued decline in
the asset base following a 5yr period of relatively underwhelming exploration
results. While capital investment into mature fields may accelerate the use of
secondary and tertiary recovery technique; 2014 production for identified
mature onshore and offshore assets included in Round 1 represent only - 12%
of 2014 crude production. Recovery at the Samaria field (represents 600/o of
the available mature assets in terms of 2014 production) has already moved
past secondary techniques, limiting the upside to recovery factors and
potentially to capital inflow. We model a 5% decline rate on the Mexico's base
assets during the production period and estimate that a shift in the base
decline rate to represent -60 mboe/d of production in 2017.
Figure 112: Exploration activity has dipped since 2010 Figure. 113. In pairs: r, excp€oration in the GoM shelf
with only smaller onshore discoveries classified as 'has been largely disappointing with recent discoveries
commercial [mostly consisting of smaller fields since 2008
100% 000 10)%
90% 90%
50% 250 80%
70% •
are 200 70%
50% 110%
193 50%
30%
0
• s
is! IC%
j. V%
100 80%
20%
10%
11 I M il l
Ina. 2008 I 2007 1 2W8 2000 1010 2011 201 2014 0%
2005 AVE 2037 33309 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
%Oren flit/ .caws%al TOM E. Was • Disc Raw re Woll613.16041 0%04 Co.. C4so Resew.
110005facitas
Sara Dane* Bt. Stang dint* Bs*
1
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 5/
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058908
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205092
EFTA01367375
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Add API Key in Settings31 May 2015
Integrated Oil
US Integrated Oils
Pi ElWily Growth Drivers
Volume growth in the forecast period (2015-2020) will be scarce. Among the
most material contributions to production in the near-term are the fields from
the Litoral de Tabasco business unit in Mexico's Southeastern business unit.
The crude from the fields is mostly light (-37 API on average). The continued
production ramp of the Tsimin field is likely the biggest spotlight in the group
(Woodmac estimated -50 mboe/d in production from 2014-2017). Longer-
term growth will be supported mostly by the heavy crude producing Ku-
Maloob Zaap fields (Ayatsil and Tekel) in the Northeastern business unit.
Wood Mackenzie estimates a production start in 2017 with peak production of
oil reaching -102 mboe/d by 2021. The fields are expected to be tendered as
part of Mexico's Round 1 as part of a joint venture opportunity with Pemex.
Primary Risks
We view the near-term risk to production as minimal as contributions from
project startups are marginal. In our view, the longer-term (2017-2020) risk to
production in Mexico is significant and is underlined by continued decline in
the asset base following a 5yr period of relatively underwhelming exploration
results. While capital investment into mature fields may accelerate the use of
secondary and tertiary recovery technique; 2014 production for identified
mature onshore and offshore assets included in Round 1 represent only - 12%
of 2014 crude production. Recovery at the Samaria field (represents 600/o of
the available mature assets in terms of 2014 production) has already moved
past secondary techniques, limiting the upside to recovery factors and
potentially to capital inflow. We model a 5% decline rate on the Mexico's base
assets during the production period and estimate that a shift in the base
decline rate to represent -60 mboe/d of production in 2017.
Figure 112: Exploration activity has dipped since 2010 Figure. 113. In pairs: r, excp€oration in the GoM shelf
with only smaller onshore discoveries classified as 'has been largely disappointing with recent discoveries
commercial [mostly consisting of smaller fields since 2008
100% 000 10)%
90% 90%
50% 250 80%
70% •
are 200 70%
50% 110%
193 50%
30%
0
• s
is! IC%
j. V%
100 80%
20%
10%
11 I M il l
Ina. 2008 I 2007 1 2W8 2000 1010 2011 201 2014 0%
2005 AVE 2037 33309 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
%Oren flit/ .caws%al TOM E. Was • Disc Raw re Woll613.16041 0%04 Co.. C4so Resew.
110005facitas
Sara Dane* Bt. Stang dint* Bs*
1
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 5/
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058908
CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205092
EFTA01367375